NHL Power Rankings: Santas 32-player naughty list, plus a new (old) No. 1

Publish date: 2024-06-14

The holiday season continues here at Power Rankings HQ and that means another theme centered around Christmas. This week: one player on each team that’s likely to find themselves on Santa’ naughty list.

Whether it’s poor play this season or simply not meeting expectations, we’ve got 32 players who might find some coal in their stockings in 10 days time.

Last week: 3
Sean’s ranking: 1
Dom’s ranking: 1

The Naughty List: Chandler Stephenson

We harped on Stephenson last week, but it’s hard to find a better choice on such a good team. Vegas simply has too many players on The Nice List this year.

Stephenson is getting his points, but he sinks any line he touches at five-on-five. His 44 percent expected goals rate is a team-worst. Relative to teammates, his impact is the sixth worst in the league and it’s leading to Vegas being outscored whenever he’s out there.

Last week: 4
Sean’s ranking: 3
Dom’s ranking: 2

The Naughty List: Tomas Tatar

The Avs’ revamped middle six hasn’t amounted to much — Ryan Johansen and Jonathan Drouin are both on Coal Watch as well — but we’re going with Tatar. If nothing else, he brought a track record of solid regular-season point production (48 points with the Devils in 2022-23) and five-on-five play. He’s given the Avs none of that, though, and the playoffs are still months away, so he can’t use that as an excuse.

Last week: 1
Sean’s ranking: 2
Dom’s ranking: 5

The Naughty List: Pierre-Luc Dubois

Dubois was the inspiration for this week’s theme after getting ethered on Wednesday night by the centerpiece of the Kings’ trade package to acquire him, Gabriel Vilardi. Dubois was supposed to be the piece that put the Kings over the top and while the team itself looks good, it’s no thanks to Dubois. Sure, it may take time for a new player to get acclimated to a new city and system — that was the case for Dubois initially when he got traded to Winnipeg. But when a player is making $8.5 million a year for the next eight years, you’d hope for a better start than 12 points in 26 games. And you’d hope he wouldn’t be getting significantly outplayed by one of the pieces he was traded for.

Last week: 5
Sean’s ranking: 5
Dom’s ranking: 3

The Naughty List: Jake DeBrusk

Just when you think DeBrusk might be finding his footing as a true top-line talent for the Bruins, he pulls the rug out from under himself. He looked like he was on the cusp early in his career before hitting a skid. Then he looked like he was back on track the last two seasons, only to fall back down to earth this season. DeBrusk is a tough player to get a read on. We expected a jump towards being one of Boston’s go-to players. Instead he’s on pace for 35 points. Not good enough!

Last week: 2
Sean’s ranking: 4
Dom’s ranking: 4

The Naughty List: Blake Wheeler

There was plenty to like about Wheeler signing with the Rangers for $800,000 over the summer; New York needed a cheap, productive winger and Wheeler, even at 36, was still grading out well enough as a playmaker. Eight points in 27 games and an expected goals percentage of 43.83, mainly in plum minutes, isn’t going to work.

Last week: 6
Sean’s ranking: 7
Dom’s ranking: 6

The Naughty List: Jake Oettinger

This list is stocked with good players having rough stretches, and Oettinger qualifies as such. Has he been terrible? Nope. But a .904 save percentage and less than two goals saved above expected isn’t good enough, either. He was a popular preseason Vezina pick for a reason. The Stars need more from him. Same goes for Jason Robertson, while we’re at it.

No question Jake Oettinger needs to be better but hyperbolic takes on his overall standing is wild.

This season, Oettinger has a .911 save percentage. That's tied with Igor Shesterkin, 2022 Vezina winner, and Ilya Sorokin, 2023 Vezina runner-up. Ups & downs are part of the game.

— Saad Yousuf (@SaadYousuf126) December 9, 2023

Last week: 11
Sean’s ranking: 6
Dom’s ranking: 8

The Naughty List: Andrei Kuzmenko

This is an easy one considering how often Kuzmenko has already drawn the ire of his coach. That includes a few games spent watching from the press box.

It was unfair to expect Kuzmenko to repeat last year’s 38 goals and 73 points. He wasn’t going to score on 27 percent of his shots. but it did feel like there was more to Kuzmenko’s game than scoring points. If he was still doing some of those little things, the drop in production would feel more manageable. As the rest of the team has stepped up, Kuzmenko has stagnated. That’s especially true defensively, as he’s been on the ice for more chances and goals against.

Last week: 8
Sean’s ranking: 8
Dom’s ranking: 7

The Naughty List: Mitch Marner

He had a nasty goal on Thursday night and three points, putting him at 32 on the season. Not bad for Team Coal.

Another look at Mitch Marner's between the legs tally#LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/m3pJiEOMK7

— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) December 15, 2023

Still, Marner’s play has been uneven at best, and the drop in effectiveness at five-on-five (an expected goals percentage of about 46, down nearly 10 points) is too steep to ignore. Shooting the puck more will go a long way.

Last week: 7
Sean’s ranking: 10
Dom’s ranking: 9

The Naughty List: Matthew Tkachuk

Last year saw Tkachuk prove he was not just a star, but a Superstar with a capital “S.” The playoffs only solidified that. Tkachuk looked like someone who could push towards being a top five player in the world and the best winger on the planet.

We’d love it if that guy showed up. On top of not scoring (just five goals in 28 games) he’s also not pushing the pace of play nearly as much either. Last season he put up one of the best offensive seasons on record based on his analytics. This year he looks ordinary.

Last week: 9
Sean’s ranking: 9
Dom’s ranking: 11

The Naughty List: Nate Schmidt

The Jets as a whole have been a very pleasant surprise, so there aren’t a whole lot of options for our Naughty List. Best we can do for you is Schmidt, who has seen his role shrink to third-pair defender. He’s doing a fine job defensively, but he’s also become an offensive black hole. That could just be bad luck (he’s been on the ice for half as many goals as expected), but hey, we never said we were a fair Santa.

Last week: 10
Sean’s ranking: 11
Dom’s ranking: 10

The Naughty List: Antti Raanta / Pyotr Kochetkov

We’ve ragged on the Hurricanes’ goalies in consecutive weeks, but whatever. That’s life when you’ve got the lowest team save percentage in the league and are allowing 0.30 goals above expected per 60. Their play is the single biggest reason Carolina is hanging around in the middle of the Metropolitan Division, where six points separate second and seventh place.

12. New Jersey Devils, 15-11-1

Last week: 12
Sean’s ranking: 13
Dom’s ranking: 12

The Naughty List: Vitek Vanecek

For all the nasty things we said about Carolina’s tandem, Vanecek has been worse than either of them. Based on GSAx, in fact, he’s been worse than everyone. Literally. He’s come on a bit lately, though, along with Akira Schmid. The Devils are more than good enough elsewhere and need one of them to put together … let’s call it “sustained decency.”

Devils goalies the last 4 games (2 starts from Schmid, 2 from Vanecek): 109 saves on 116 shots against (.940 sv pct).

— Bill Spaulding (@BillSpaulding) December 14, 2023

13. New York Islanders, 14-7-7

Last week: 22
Sean’s ranking: 12
Dom’s ranking: 14

The Naughty List: Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Pageau deserves some credit for his work on the penalty kill, where he leads the NHL with four assists. The fact that he only has one more point at five-on-five, though, is an issue for the Islanders. Their opponents are outscoring them 14-8 with Pageau on the ice and controlling about 43 percent of the expected goals. For a team at the top of a messy Metro heap, every goal looms large.

Last week: 14
Sean’s ranking: 15
Dom’s ranking: 13

The Naughty List: Connor Brown

Going with the goalies would be too easy. You could say the same for Brown too, though — in 20 games, averaging nearly 15 minutes of ice time, he has zero goals and one assist. He’s not particularly snakebitten either, given that he’s 357th in the league among forwards in individual shots/60.

Last week: 17
Sean’s ranking: 14
Dom’s ranking: 16

The Naughty List: Tyson Barrie

When Edmonton sent Barrie back to Nashville in the Mattias Ekholm deal it always looked like it would be an awkward fit. The Predators already had Roman Josi filling the role of the one thing Barrie does well: quarterbacking the top power play. They’ve tried to accommodate him by shoehorning him into the top unit in an archaic 3F2D, but it just hasn’t worked. And he’s looked even worse any time he’s out there at five-on-five. He’s been an even bigger defensive disaster than usual.

Now he’s looking for a new home that fits him better. Good luck — it’ll be a difficult task for a one-dimensional offensive defenseman whose ability in that one dimension probably isn’t worth the headache.

Last week: 15
Sean’s ranking: 16
Dom’s ranking: 15

The Naughty List: Noah Cates

The sophomore slump is hitting Cates hard. In his first year, he filled Sean Couturier’s shoes rather well as the team’s two-way shutdown center. He was elite at suppressing shots and chipped in with a solid 38 points. This year he’s in a lesser role, and while the shot suppression still looks strong, his offense has evaporated. Just one goal and four points in 21 games is really disappointing for a player who looked like a sneaky great find.

Last week: 13
Sean’s ranking: 17
Dom’s ranking: 18

The Naughty List: David Perron

Perron isn’t here because of his vicious cross-check on Artem Zub that got him suspended for six games. That’s reason enough, but beyond that, he just hasn’t been up to his usual standard. Through 26 games, Perron has just 13 points and is getting absolutely annihilated at five-on-five to the tune of a 38 percent expected goals rate. Yikes.

Last week: 19
Sean’s ranking: 18
Dom’s ranking: 17

The Naughty List: Rickard Rakell

We don’t mean to pick on one of Pittsburgh’s many injured players, but there’s no better answer here than Rakell. It looked like he was back to being an impact player for the Penguins last year after putting up 28 goals and 60 points, but he just hasn’t been close to that player this season. In the 17 games he has played, he hasn’t scored a single goal and has just four assists.

Last week: 16
Sean’s ranking: 19
Dom’s ranking: 19

The Naughty List: Matt Dumba

Signing Dumba to play first-pair minutes made sense for the Coyotes, but he was also likely to be overextended in that role — and that’s how it’s played out thus far. Dumba, despite being second to Sean Durzi in average ice time among Arizona’s d-men, has four points. The Coyotes have also been outshot (by 38) and out-attempted (by 80) with him on the ice. For now, they’re too competitive to try to flip him, and that’s probably good news for everyone involved.

Last week: 18
Sean’s ranking: 20
Dom’s ranking: 20

The Naughty List: Mikhail Sergachev

With Sergachev on the ice at five-on-five, the Lightning score 1.69 goals per 60 minutes, which is bad. They allow 3.31 goals, which is also bad. The end result is a 1.62-goal gap that’s 641st in the league out of 707 total players. It’s too early to make any grand proclamations, but, uh, he’s signed through 2031.

Last week: 20
Sean’s ranking: 21
Dom’s ranking: 22

The Naughty List: Alex Ovechkin

We take no joy in pointing out that Ovechkin’s goal-scoring pace is in the teens, or that he’s scored just three of them against actual goaltenders, but that’s indeed the case. Now, his personal shooting percentage is a preposterously low 5.56, and he’s at about 11 expected goals. That bodes well. He’s 38, though. You’re thinking it. Don’t lie.

Last week: 21
Sean’s ranking: 22
Dom’s ranking: 21

The Naughty List: Kirill Kaprizov

Two years ago he scored 108 points. Last season, he scored at a 91-point pace. Both years saw him looking like a future 50-goal scorer. Kaprizov has his work cut out for him if he has any plans of getting back. One of the reasons the Wild have been so disappointing is partly due to their best player looking ordinary more often than not. Minnesota pays Kaprizov the big bucks to break games open all by himself. He hasn’t done that nearly enough, with just eight goals and 24 points in 26 games. Some pedestrian five-on-five numbers have only made matters worse.

Last week: 23
Sean’s ranking: 23
Dom’s ranking: 23

The Naughty List: Jordan Kyrou

Maybe things will change under a new coach that Kyrou has kinder words for. They’ll have to if Kyrou wants to come anywhere close to living up to his $8.125 AAV.

We already know defense isn’t going to be Kyrou’s strong suit. At the very least, he has to provide enough offense to make up for it. Five goals and 17 points in 28 games? Yeah, that’ll earn some coal. And apparently some boos from the home crowd, too. What a mess.

Rutherford: What led to Blues fans booing Jordan Kyrou, and to his tears afterward. Let me explain. #stlblues https://t.co/zqmyAKJfTb

— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) December 15, 2023

Last week: 25
Sean’s ranking: 24
Dom’s ranking: 24

The Naughty List: Dominik Kubalik

Let’s take a quick look back at the Alex DeBrincat trade. The second one.

The Sens settled for a package of a first, a fourth, a defensive prospect and one NHL player: Dominik Kubalik. That felt like an OK stopgap. Kubalik is obviously no DeBrincat, but at the very least he was a solid depth scorer the year prior with 20 goals and 45 points for the Red Wings. With five goals in 23 games, he’s at least keeping up the scoring pace, but the one assist he has means he’s playing at a brutal 21-point pace.

The Senators weren’t ever going to win any DeBrincat trade, but they could’ve at least salvaged it with an OK NHL piece back. Kubalik hasn’t even been that.

Last week: 27
Sean’s ranking: 25
Dom’s ranking: 26

The Naughty List: Josh Anderson

Anderson has 10.8 expected goals this season … and just one actual goal. He’s giving the term “snakebit” a whole new meaning.

This isn’t the first time Anderson has had a rough stretch like this to start a season either. Back in 2019-20 with Columbus, Anderson had one goal in 26 games. That he’s managed to beat that feat this season is mind-boggling.

Last week: 24
Sean’s ranking: 26
Dom’s ranking: 25

The Naughty List: Dylan Cozens

You don’t want too many players to choose from for stuff like this, but that’s where the Sabres find themselves. We’ll go with Cozens over Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin. Some tough puck luck aside, he hasn’t scored an even-strength goal since Oct. 27. He has four total goals this season, compared to 10 through his first 28 games of 2022-23. Someone fix this. Not just Cozens — the whole deal in Buffalo.

Last week: 26
Sean’s ranking: 27
Dom’s ranking: 27

The Naughty List: Jonathan Huberdeau

The wildest part about Huberdeau’s decline in Calgary might be the erosion of his effectiveness as a playmaker. This season, he’s managing 0.69 primary assists per 60. That’s his worst output since his rookie season, down from 1.04 last season and 2.05 (!!) in 2021-22. Fifteen points, 30 games, $84 million through 2031. Oof.

Last week: 28
Sean’s ranking: 28
Dom’s ranking: 28

The Naughty List: Matty Beniers

In an interview with ROOT sports, Matty Beniers reveals he knows how to play the clarinet, saxophone, violin, and has recently taken up the piano.

Matty's a music nerd!! A man after my own heart. 😍

— Davy Jones' Locker Room (@DavyJonesLR) December 15, 2023

Maybe he can write himself a goal song. Regression has come hard for Beniers, with his shooting percentage dropping nearly 10 points from his rookie season, but 6.69 expected goals vs. his four actual suggests that he could put himself in better positions, too.

Last week: 30
Sean’s ranking: 29
Dom’s ranking: 29

The Naughty List: Filip Zadina

The Sharks signed Zadina to a one-year, $1.1 million contract, which made him a semi-interesting buy-low/flip candidate, but it hasn’t worked out. He’s got six points overall and one of the worst expected goals percentages you’ll ever see from a regular skater (31.47, 703rd out of 709 NHL players). That’s even more jarring, given a half-decent run of play-driving with the Red Wings.

30. Columbus Blue Jackets, 10-16-5

Last week: 32
Sean’s ranking: 31
Dom’s ranking: 30

The Naughty List: Johnny Gaudreau

Thursday night — a ridiculous 6-5 win over the Maple Leafs that Columbus nearly blew — was probably a bit more like what Gaudreau expected when he signed with the Blue Jackets. He’s playing with Adam Fantilli now, too. All good things. Now maybe he can put up more than a point every two games. Call us crazy, but he should not have a worse five-on-five total than Sean Kuraly.

Last week: 29
Sean’s ranking: 30
Dom’s ranking: 31

The Naughty List: Alex Killorn

Signing Killorn for $6.25 million for four years looked like a massive risk before the ink was even dry. He was old, in decline, and looked like a byproduct of his more impressive linemates in Tampa Bay.

Predictably, things aren’t going well for him in Anaheim. In 18 games, he has just three goals and eight points and is getting crushed territorially. The Ducks have earned just 42 percent of the expected goals with him on the ice and have been outscored 14-6.

Last week: 31
Sean’s ranking: 32
Dom’s ranking: 32

The Naughty List: Lukas Reichel

Part of the excitement in Chicago going into the season was not just Connor Bedard, but the emergence of an exciting young new core. Reichel was a big part of that, looking pretty damn impressive at the end of last season. On a reeling team, he was a lone bright spot with seven goals and 15 points in 23 games. That’s a 25-goal, 53-point pace. Not bad, and his underlying numbers looked solid too.

This year, Reichel has looked completely lost most nights. He’s mustered just six points in 26 games and has been getting wrecked at five-on-five. If he’s going to be an important part of the future, he needs to start showing much, much more.

(Photo of Mark Stone: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)

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NHL Power Rankings: Santas 32-player naughty list, plus a new (old) No. 1

12. New Jersey Devils, 15-11-1

13. New York Islanders, 14-7-7

30. Columbus Blue Jackets, 10-16-5